A complete index of the essays and articles published on Substack. Long-form writing lives on Substack.
Pay 12x for a company earning $10 million and you didn't just buy a company. You bought a to-do list. The closing piece works the math, shows how the distance becomes initiatives landing on the same six to eight people, and gives five moves before close, one metric to track, and a one-page test for any plan already in flight.
Read on Substack ↗You paid 12x. The market now says 10x. In private equity you can go three years without anyone telling you. This piece examines how marks, re-forecasts, credit lines, continuation vehicles and NAV loans change when a price gets tested, separates four kinds of value, and explains why DPI is the clock no one can engineer.
Read on Substack ↗By 2025 just 19 percent of 2021 buyouts had been sold. The first piece in the series raises the possibility that the exit backlog is a lagging indicator, set years earlier by capital formation, deployment pressure and cheap credit, by people doing what the system paid them to do. It closes with questions for each seat at the table.
Read on Substack ↗Two clocks run in every hold: financial time, which can be extended, and transformation time, which cannot be compressed. The closing piece of the series shows why a hold may be long enough to install an operating system but too short to absorb one, how trackers stay green while practices decay, and the question sponsors have not been asking.
Read on Substack ↗A mid-year industrials outlook names execution capacity as a deal catalyst in engineering and construction, where labor limits make it visible. This essay argues manufacturing carries the same constraint, unpriced: every investment theme becomes an initiative, roll-ups multiply the load, and the capacity premium gets paid either at entry or in year four, in time.
Read on Substack ↗Private equity built large operating groups, and the gap did not close. This piece explains why capability built at the sponsor does not become capability inside the company, introduces the schematic, an accurate picture of how the business works and fails, and asks where the capability lives when the company is sold.
Read on Substack ↗When demand on a company exceeds what it can carry, the signals appear early: slipping schedule attainment, longer lead times, more expediting. Nobody assembles them. This piece explains why ownership mobilizes at entry and exit but drifts in between, introduces Hidden Initiative Load, and shows what late detection costs.
Read on Substack ↗In 2025 exit value rose 41 percent to $1.3 trillion, buyers paid above marks, and exit count still fell 15 percent. The first piece in the series argues the window revealed a shortage of assets ready to clear at the values their owners required, not a shortage of buyers, and asks what changes in that inventory before the next window opens.
Read on Substack ↗A long-form essay on the U.S. defense industrial base. It opens with a $469 million artillery plant in Mesquite, Texas that had produced no parts meeting specification by March 2026, and argues the government has stopped governing capacity it owns while funding private capacity it cannot reassign. It makes the case for a government-owned, contractor-operated model.
Read on Substack ↗Private equity held 33,575 unsold companies at mid-2026, more than double a decade earlier. The accepted explanations, from rates to software valuations, are probably right in many cases. This essay looks at the side left unexamined: what was bought, what the model assumed at entry, and why extending a hold buys time but not value creation.
Read on Substack ↗In FTI's 2026 Value Creation Index, M&A jumped from eighth priority to first while remaining the slowest lever to deliver. This essay points to what the index never measures: whether one leadership layer can carry M&A plus four other management-heavy initiatives at once. The next edge may come from knowing how much change a company can absorb.
Read on Substack ↗Operating groups have doubled since 2021 and Chief Transformation Officers are now common, yet value still arrives late. This essay argues the investment went to the wrong layer. It separates operating strategy, governance and the daily work of execution, and makes the case that what is missing is a discipline at the working layer, not another chief.
Read on Substack ↗EBITDA margin gains in PE holds concentrate at about six points in the final year, against roughly one point a year before it. This essay argues the surge is recovery, not acceleration. Early years are saturated by initiative load, deferred work builds up as Execution Debt, and the final year releases value the organization could not carry sooner.
Read on Substack ↗Everyone now agrees on the diagnosis, yet the gap between top and average PE firms keeps widening. Drawing on FTI Consulting's 2026 index, this essay argues the gap is execution architecture, not strategy: workforce effectiveness shows the widest spread, commercial intensity is a capacity question, and the case for exit starts at close.
Read on Substack ↗A Below the Line strip on the first meeting between the deal team and management.
Read on Substack ↗Private equity used to have several ways to be right. This essay shows how the return stack has narrowed: deal costs near record highs, the EBITDA growth needed for a 2.5x return roughly doubled, and a capital cycle stretched to about seven years. At today's prices, the Value Realization Gap is more expensive than it has ever been.
Read on Substack ↗A short companion post with an audio overview of Hirano's JIT Implementation Manual, focused on cash flow, cost reduction and growth for PE-backed manufacturers. It opens a run of pieces drawing on classic operations references to show what PE firms should help drive inside their portfolio companies.
Read on Substack ↗Thirty days of inventory looks like a healthy buffer in the model. On the floor it can be the water hiding the rocks. Drawing on Hirano's JIT Implementation Manual, this essay explains why batching is often a financing decision dressed up as a production one, and why diligence has to ask what the business is absorbing, and who is doing the absorbing.
Read on Substack ↗A Below the Line strip on the revenue bridge in the board deck.
Read on Substack ↗In a 2026 survey of one hundred CEOs, 87 percent say their teams are aligned and committed, and fewer than half believe their organizations can execute at the speed now required. This essay reads the roughly forty-point gap as arithmetic, not leadership, and explains why AI stays stuck in pilots: saturated organizations ration what they cannot absorb.
Read on Substack ↗A Below the Line strip on life as an ex-PortCo.
Read on Substack ↗The capstone of a week spent reading four major research reports. Four firms, four data sets, one diagnosis, and none of them names the mechanism. When initiative load exceeds what the organization can carry, work fragments, savings are made and lost, and EBITDA arrives late or not at all. The diagnosis is finished; the treatment plan is the work that remains.
Read on Substack ↗Deal volume and exits at five-year lows, fundraising at a nine-year low, all in the same quarter. Read together, they look structural rather than cyclical: stalled exits stall distributions, and stalled distributions stall fundraising. This piece also explains how the add-on response can deepen the condition it is meant to fix.
Read on Substack ↗An analysis of 239 European PE exits shows margin improvement now drives 51 percent of EBITDA growth, up from 21.5 percent through 2022. This essay argues the inversion is an old condition finally becoming measurable. Revenue growth in physical operations was always downstream of operating capacity, and the execution architecture to deliver it may never have been built.
Read on Substack ↗A Friday Below the Line strip on the PE cliff.
Read on Substack ↗Most firms collect operational knowledge; the best build diagnostic infrastructure. This essay separates the playbook, which records what worked, from the capability to know when it applies. It covers early detection as a financial variable, the troubleshooting skill most firms lack, and what standardized learning across a portfolio looks like in practice.
Read on Substack ↗A Below the Line strip with a nod to Monty Python.
Read on Substack ↗A Below the Line strip on due diligence and the certainty it promises.
Read on Substack ↗The market is thawing, but selectively: high-quality assets draw deep bid fields while mid-tier assets struggle. This piece argues the gap is operational, that add-on and synergy theses only work if the platform can absorb them, and that the waiting period is the time to make a company more financeable and credible. Companies earn the right to use the exit window.
Read on Substack ↗A Below the Line strip on a quality-of-earnings favorite: the non-recurring add-back.
Read on Substack ↗Two phrases sit unwritten in almost every value creation plan: 'management will execute' and 'we'll figure it out in the hold.' The first hides the limit on what leaders can carry; the second hides how much of the hold was set at entry. Includes a worked example of initiative load against leadership capacity, and the work to do before signing.
Read on Substack ↗April's ISM Manufacturing PMI held at 52.7 and the headlines called it expansion. The sub-indices tell a different story: new orders stalling after months of slowdown and pulled forward ahead of price increases, a shrinking backlog, and diesel up 65 percent in seventeen weeks. A trap game for manufacturers, and what operators should do about it now.
Read on Substack ↗A Friday Below the Line strip. Not every day needs to be serious.
Read on Substack ↗A Below the Line strip on the boardroom AI conversation, and what happens when the strategy is simply more AI.
Read on Substack ↗A practitioner's guide to Hoshin Kanri and the X-Matrix, the one-page strategy deployment tool that links long-term strategy, annual objectives, improvement priorities and the named people who carry them. Drawn from hands-on deployment, it shows how the matrix exposes overloaded leaders and initiatives with no link to strategy before the first milestone slips, including use at the investment committee stage.
Read on Substack ↗Ask how many improvement initiatives are in flight and the answer usually exceeds what the organization can execute. Companies measure financial capacity precisely and organizational capacity not at all. This piece offers signals, including middle-management energy and how long the last three initiatives took, that show within 30 days whether a plan already exceeds capacity.
Read on Substack ↗A 90-minute plant walk can tell you more than a 40-page board deck. This piece lays out the signals visible on the floor, from material flow and equipment condition to the rhythm of the work, and what they mean together. Two tips: listen for the operation's cadence as you walk in, and check whether the maintenance area itself is maintained.
Read on Substack ↗Working capital is the most under-read signal in a manufacturing business. This piece shows how DSO, DPO and inventory turns map to commercial execution, procurement and production planning, and how reading them closely surfaces problems months before they reach the P&L. These are operating questions that happen to have financial signatures.
Read on Substack ↗Continuation vehicles, GP-led secondaries and NAV loans are increasingly used to answer an execution problem with financial structure. The closing piece of the series explains why capacity in year three is often lower than in year one, why value creation becomes back-loaded, and why measuring capacity before close beats engineering around the gap after it.
Read on Substack ↗Every deal model has a precise EBITDA bridge and no equivalent model of the organization that has to deliver it. This piece introduces the Execution Budget, which weighs leadership capacity by layer against initiative demand by tier, so a plan can be checked for whether it is executable. It also separates a talent problem from a loading problem, and why the remedies differ.
Read on Substack ↗In early 2026 the major consulting firms agreed: financial engineering is no longer the main engine of returns, and operational value creation is. This opening piece accepts the diagnosis and names what is missing from it. Load fifteen initiatives onto a team with bandwidth for seven, and speed accelerates saturation instead of results.
Read on Substack ↗Private equity models EBITDA; operators create it. This piece maps the operational levers, from materials and labor to overhead, inventory and reliability, to the financial pathways each one moves, and shows how operational reliability creates pricing power. The firms that close the gap run fewer initiatives, with full sight of the mechanism each one activates.
Read on Substack ↗Every board update now has an AI slide. Written by someone who uses AI every day, this is not a skeptic's argument but a test: name the operational problem in specific terms, with a dollar value attached. If the answer needs the word AI to make sense, the problem isn't defined yet, and the initiative is a slide deck with a faster processor.
Read on Substack ↗Extended holds are usually blamed on the market. This essay argues many are set in the deal room. Every acquisition runs on two architectures, financial and execution, with no formal point where they meet. When the plan asks more than the organization can absorb, the hold doesn't slip by accident. It was embedded from the start.
Read on Substack ↗Bain's 2026 Global Private Equity Report made '12 is the new 5' the year's most cited line. This essay reads the report through an operating lens, sets its conclusions beside earlier practitioner writing, and argues that diagnosis is only half the work. The operating layer, where value is realized, is the part the report does not reach.
Read on Substack ↗The first deep dive on The Operational Edge. Organizations absorb change at a finite rate, and many value creation plans assume a faster one. The essay builds the economics of that limit, makes the case for a bandwidth ledger in the deal model, introduces Execution Debt, and describes three recurring patterns of absorption failure, including the integration that consumed the base business.
Read on Substack ↗Capital is plentiful, yet hold periods keep stretching. This essay argues that execution capacity, not capital, is the binding constraint on returns, and traces how bandwidth saturation shows up quarter by quarter: first in working capital, later in revised EBITDA forecasts, long after the root cause was set.
Read on Substack ↗Realized returns keep trailing the model. The opening piece of the series argues the problem is neither modeling nor capital, but execution. Organizations have a finite capacity to absorb change while running the business. When that capacity is exceeded, initiatives collide, and markets discount the projections that follow.
Read on Substack ↗Revenue growth reassures lenders and buys time with boards, but it can mask more than it reveals. Volume absorbs fixed cost and overtime fills the gaps while the underlying system stays the same. The question is not whether a business is growing, but whether the organization is becoming more capable as it grows.
Read on Substack ↗Savings get identified and booked, yet many never reach sustained EBITDA. This piece separates cost removal from cost displacement and argues that savings achieved without a matching gain in execution capability tend to reset rather than compound. Cost actions have to change the operating system, not just the timeline.
Read on Substack ↗Markets, multiples and timing matter, but they rarely explain why modeled outcomes fail to appear. This piece names a more consistent limiter: an organization's capacity to execute change while running the business. When that ceiling is reached, initiatives stall, forecasts get revised, and buyers discount projections that lack an execution history.
Read on Substack ↗The closing piece of the series. Value does not fail in the spreadsheet; it fails in absorption. Organizations that have shown they can absorb and sustain change earn higher valuations than peers with similar strategies, which makes value realization an operating discipline rather than an assumption in the model.
Read on Substack ↗Playbooks work when conditions are stable. When supply chains shift or leadership turns over, the playbook breaks. This follow-up to Operating Partners 2.0 introduces Institutional Alpha: returns that persist across cycles because a firm has built principles, shared learning and the discipline to ask why something worked, not just what was done.
Read on Substack ↗The essay that introduced the Value Realization Gap: the distance between what an investment memo promises and what shows up in EBITDA, cash and exit value. It walks through why identified value fails to land, including the dashboard mirage, where better reporting is mistaken for better performance, and why LPs now judge realized value over promised value.
Read on Substack ↗As zombie companies and zombie funds multiply, the old formula of buy low, add leverage and exit quickly has stopped working. This essay argues that operational capability is what turns an investment thesis into realized value. Companies that cannot deliver EBITDA cannot exit, and funds that cannot exit eventually stop raising capital.
Read on Substack ↗Value creation is being treated as a new idea. This essay asks how much value was left on the table while the industry leaned on leverage, multiples and momentum, and what catching up requires: repeatable playbooks, data used as an asset, and real operators who lead transformation rather than observe it.
Read on Substack ↗Operating Partner has become one of private equity's most popular titles, but many roles remain reactive, called in when something breaks. This essay argues for builders over monitors: operators involved before close who fix sequencing, constraints and supervisor routines inside the business. One example shows five margin points added in six months with no new capital.
Read on Substack ↗